The USD/CHF is testing the 200 day simple moving average for the 15th time since January 8th, 2009. On a number of occasions the price has dipped below intraday but each day the close has been higher. We would look for the close below the level to confirm the break but it is always nice to see a move away on the day of the break.
Of course, with the Swiss National bank in the wings - as it has already voiced its displeasure with an over strong Swiss Franc - the pair might be supported on dips. However, their concern may be more focused on the more local EURO. Incidently, the EURCHF is up today, but is still near the low levels since the intervention by the SNB took place in March. It tested the 50% retracement level of the move higher in March which included the record spike from the central banks direct intervention in the market. That level comes in at the 1.5012 level. The low was 1.5014. So although the key level looms large today, any dramatic move down, will be accompanied by an eye on the chance for intervention. As a result, there is likely to be bids on dips.
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